Week 2 delivered some chart topping hits. Week 3 is more so the deep cuts.
A lot of casuals will watch their team play this weekend, or nothing at all. There is no Texas – Bama, FSU – LSU, or Colorado – any decent team to get first billing this week. Many fans are looking ahead to the absolute monster that is week 4. There are a lot of good games in week 4, but we’ll get there when we get there. I had some games I thought would be the best in week 3 before the season started. But I’ll leave it up to you if I was on the mark or not. There are some things to talk about in week 3, they are just deeper cuts for a more diehard fan. For me the week mostly revolves around renewed rivalries and possible upsets. Let’s get into it.
Upset Watch
With the games being a little lackluster this weekend, let’s flip the script on our format. I will be watching the Wisconsin – Georgia Southern game. Outside of that, I’ll check scores on my phone during the day to see if any upsets are brewing. When things start coming together for an underdog, then maybe I’ll tune in.
7 Penn State at Illinois (+14.5) – 11:00 AM CST
Penn State looks unbeatable right now. Their QB looks legit. And Illinois just lost to Kansas. Yet somehow, Vegas thinks this is a 2 score game. That would mean it’s still a game entering the 4th quarter. And it only takes one lucky bounce for crazy things to happen. Illinois’ home crowd better show out; they’ll need every edge they can get.
Upset Meter: 3/10
I don’t see it. The fans are probably still depressed from last week.
15 Kansas State at Missouri (+3.5) – 11:00 AM CST
I am confused. Missouri is bad. Right? Kansas State is good. Right?
How is the spread only 3.5? Everything in my gut says Kansas State wins by 4 scores. Like they did last year – 40 to 12. Vegas knows something we don’t; those buildings in the desert don’t build themselves.
Upset Meter: 8/10
Vegas knows something. Don’t touch this game with a 20-foot pole.
14 LSU at Mississippi State (+9.5) – 11:00 AM CST
LSU already has a loss and can’t afford another one. Miss. State just squeaked by Arizona in overtime. I think that was a look-ahead spot, and the Bulldogs are better than that. Every SEC stadium (except Vandy) is a tough place to play. Too bad this isn’t a night game.
Upset Meter: 7/10
This one wouldn’t shock me. Mississippi State is underrated.
Minnesota at 20 North Carolina (-7.5) – 2:30 PM CST
These schools have never played each other. So throw “historical trends” out the window.
Is UNC good? OR is South Carolina bad?
Is Minnesota bad on offense? Or does Nebraska have a decent defense? – Colorado makes me think the former.
Upset Meter: 5/10
I don’t know how the fighting Flecks plan to score. But the defense could win a low scoring affair for them.
South Carolina at 1 Georgia (-27.5) – 2:30 PM CST
4 scores is a lot. This only happens if Carson Beck is terrible. And even if he’s terrible, Georgia could still find a way to win by 4 scores.
Spencer Rattler would need to play the game of his life for this to happen. Or, if he plays as well as he did at the end of last year, they’ll have a chance.
Upset Meter: 2/10
I don’t see it, but Georgia’s last home loss was to a 4-8 South Carolina squad. I guess anything is possible.
Western Kentucky at 6 Ohio State (-29.5) – 2:30 PM CST
Lolololol.
But wait. Western Kentucky is the best team in C-USA (low bar). And OSU has had trouble scoring recently…
Yeah, no.
Upset Meter: 1/10
This would be OSU’s version of the App State-Michigan disaster if it happens.
8 Washington at Michigan State (+16.5) – 5:00 PM CST
A scandal almost never helps a team get better. Almost never.
But what if the team resents the coach? What if they rally around his suspension and are better for it? In that scenario, Washington wins by 14 instead of 21.
Upset Meter: 3/10
Washington is just too good.
11 Tennessee at Florida (+6.5) – 6:00 PM CST
I am legally required to state that it’s always hard to win in The Swamp.
I must also note that Tennessee has not won at Florida since 2003.
With the disclaimers out of the way.
Upset Meter: 3/10
Graham Mertz is bad. Billy Napier isn’t the guy. Even with history not on their side (and Joe Milton struggling to throw the ball in weeks 1 and 2), I love Tennessee in this game.
Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-10.5) – 6:30 PM CST
Nebraska is bad. They are 0-2 and the Minnesota loss was devastating. But, this isn’t about Nebraska.
Northern Illinois is… confusing. They beat Boston College in week 1. That’s pretty good. But they lost to FCS Southern Illinois in week 2. That’s terrible. What is Northern Illinois football? I have no idea, and that should terrify Nebraska.
A MAC team has beaten a B1G team every year for the last 17 years. It hasn’t happened yet in 2023, and this is one of the last few opportunities.
Upset Meter: 8/10
Be afraid Nebraska. Be very afraid.
Rivalries Back From the Dead
Friday: 6:00 PM CST
Virginia at Maryland (-14.5)
They first played in 1919, and they played every year from 1957 through 2013. The Big Ten killed the rivalry game by adding Maryland in 2014. Now, in 2023 it’s back – if just for a moment. For Maryland, this is their most played historical series. For Virginia, it’s one of their 3 main rivals in football (the others being UNC and Virginia Tech). This rivalry burns hottest in the DC area, where Virginia and Maryland alums overlap quite heavily. This is the Battle for the DMV.
On the field, I don’t expect this game to be very interesting. Virginia is in shambles this year, and Maryland is sneaky good. This game means a lot to many coaches, players, and alums, but to the general public, it’s a good team playing a bad team. Not super compelling.
At least we get some Friday night football again.
Saturday: 6:30 PM CST
Pitt at West Virginia (-2.5)
The Backyard Brawl.
Last year the college football season was kicked off by this game, and it was phenomenal. This year they are playing in week 3, and no one is talking about it.
The Backyard Brawl is another rivalry that died due to conference realignment. They played every year from 1943 till 2011. Before it left, it was possibly the biggest game in the Big East year in and year out. The schools are only 75 miles apart, making road trips to the opposing stadium easy and frequent for the fanbases.
It doesn’t help that not much is expected of these teams this year. West Virginia has a coach on the hot seat, and Pitt just lost unexpectedly to Cincinnati. But for these schools, if they had to go 1-11 but they could pick the win, they would pick this game every time. I’m sure McAfee, a West Virginia alum, feels that way. This game is the Super Bowl to these teams. And both are poor enough that it should be a quality matchup. Turn it on if you want to watch college football of old: a passionate game where things like conference titles and playoff bids are irrelevant; all that matters is winning this Saturday.
Spread Picks*:
Below are the only games I would actually consider betting myself. I’ll track my record for these picks all season so we can see if I actually know anything.
Maryland (-14.5)
Maryland hasn’t played a real team yet, but I think they’ll be good. Virginia has played real teams, and they’ve proven they are terrible.
Penn State (-14.5)
Penn State is phenomenal. Illinois didn’t impress me last week. If Kansas can throw on the Illini, then Allar should have no issue doing the same.
Western Michigan (+28.5)
Iowa has not broken the 25 mark yet. Why should I think they will now?
Washington (-16.5)
Washington is amazing. Sparty is reeling from scandal. This screams blowout.
Tennessee (-6.5) – Favorite Pick
I have the same reasoning as the week 1 favorite pick. I don’t believe in Graham Mertz.
Colorado (-23.5)
Sportsbooks aren’t adjusting fast enough to how good Colorado is. Colorado wins by at least 4 TDs.
I have no upset picks this week. I’ve looked over all the games multiple times; there just aren’t any I like enough to put on my weekly picks. There will be upsets this weekend, but Hell if I know what they’ll be.
How I’ve Done so far this Season:
Upset Picks must be +3 or greater to be “Upsets”
Favorite Picks: 2-0 (Deion is for real)
Upset Picks: 3-1 (Dangit Illinois)
Total Record ATS: 10-7 (upsets are keeping me alive)
*These picks are to express my opinion on games from a point spread perspective. I am not advocating for you, the reader, to gamble on any of these games. Please bet responsibly.
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This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene