As media rights money continues to drive realignment in college football, will a power five school be kicked out of their conference?
The idea that a team should be kicked out of a conference has been discussed by many CFB fans sitting around, talking smart at the bar, but it has never been taken very seriously at a national level.
Earlier this summer Joel Klatt, a media member I highly respect, gave the idea legs, and then many others piled on the “what if?” bandwagon. The thinking is this: the bigger brands will have separated themselves so far from their conference brethren that they will no longer be interested in splitting revenue with teams that don’t carry their weight.
I will go conference by conference through the P5 and lay out possible candidates that could be told to pack their bags in the next 5 to 50 years, and how seriously we should take the possibility.
Big Ten – One obvious choice
Possibilities:
Rutgers
Northwestern
Maryland
Northwestern has been floated as a possibility, mostly from a competitive standpoint But NW is a founding member of the conference and an academic powerhouse in a conference that values academics.
The answer is Rutgers. Bowl eligibility is a dream for this school. The fit isn’t there. The investment isn’t there. And it feels like a stretch to say this gets the B1G into the New York market.
The other newest member, Maryland, has shown enough investment in the last 5 years to make me believe they are on the way up, not down. But they are currently second worst in football attendance, after Northwestern.
SEC – A possibility or two worth exploring
Possibilities:
Vanderbilt
Missouri
The Mississippi Schools
Vanderbilt is the most obvious choice for me. But, I don’t see them getting kicked out simply because they’ve been a part of the conference for so long. They don’t feel like a fit in the SEC though. Their investment level seems like that of Duke or Georgia Tech.
Missouri might make sense to some more than Vandy. They are a late addition. They are on the periphery of the conference footprint, and their TV ratings are low. But they are the flagship school in their state, and old conference rivals Texas and OU are set to join the conference.
Mississippi State and Ole Miss aren’t getting kicked out of the SEC. But in a world where the Power 2 break away from the NCAA, some schools are getting left on the chopping block.
Pac-12 – The conference would have to still exist
Possibilities:
Oregon State
Washington State
California
Well, that’s an interesting list. In a world where the Pac-12 doesn’t implode eventually, those are the schools getting kicked out. It’s easy to tell because if/when the conference does die, those are the schools projected to be left out to dry. Unfortunately, they aren’t wanted and will likely end up in the Mountain West.
Big 12 – More likely to grow, but what about long term?
Possibilities:
West Virginia
BYU
Iowa State
In this world, the Big 12 stays aggressive and continues adding quality brands for the next 10 to 20 years. Now it’s time to trim the fat.
BYU refusing to play any sports on Sundays could be an issue long term.
West Virginia is a small state, makes no geographic sense, and is down in football and basketball right now.
Iowa State, see the same reasons as west Virginia, but not as severe.
ACC – The ghosts of the Big East have been around for too long
Possibilities:
Boston College
Syracuse
Louisville
Now that I’m writing this, it actually feels like a viable plan for a conference in distress. The ACC is locked into a terrible media deal with ESPN through 2036, and 7 members have already made it clear they are exploring escape options.
The northeast hasn’t cared about college football in a very long time, and it shows. Boston College and Syracuse are massively overshadowed by the pro sports teams in their respective markets.
In Syracuse’s case they likely aren’t even the most popular CFB team in New York City.
Louisville is a solid program, but is second fiddle in their state, and they are a weird fit for a conference on the “Atlantic Coast.”
The Loser is…?
Rutgers.
No one thinks they belong in the B1G. This pick was obvious to me once I started writing. This isn’t to say Rutgers is going to be kicked out. But if someone is – it’s Rutgers. I’m sorry Rutgers.
The Big 12, SEC, and Pac-12 won’t kick anyone out anytime soon. The Pac-12 will literally die first.
The ACC is an intriguing dark horse in this competition though. Could cutting some northeast schools increase revenue enough for the remaining teams to be satisfied? The conference could definitely benefit from concentrating on markets further south, where college football is king.
For now, conferences seem to be far more into adding teams than kicking them out, but maybe this is a relevant discussion in 20 years.
Want more Walk On Fan? Check out this story about San Diego State University and its status in the Mountain West Conference!
This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene