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The First Four
Let’s get started with the First Four games and the biggest controversy of Selection Sunday. North Carolina should not be in the NCAA tournament plain and simple. Indiana and West Virginia have vastly superior wins and also less harmful losses. The only thing that North Carolina has going for it is the fact they have a lot of non-conference quality losses. But only one quality win. In fact, they have 2 wins over other teams in the tournament: UCLA (7 seed) and American (16 seed.) In comparison, Indiana has 4 and West Virginia has 5. However, there’s commonly one team that plays in the first four that makes the Sweet Sixteen. And UNC is my bet to make that run. They have been playing good basketball recently, only losing to Duke twice in their past 10 games. On top of that, they get to play a weak San Diego State team, an over seeded Ole Miss, and either Iowa State without their second-best player or 14 seed Lipscomb. Good thing UNC’s athletic director, also the NCAA committee chair, stepped out for UNC conversations and had no influence on their seeding at all. In terms of the other games, the 16s are all bad teams with fun stories that won’t win in the first round while Texas and Xavier are both teams that don’t have a lot of momentum on their side.
South Region
My pick to win the South region and make the final four is the number 2 seed, Michigan State. Auburn, the number one overall seed in the tournament, got screwed by the selection committee. After their first first game, they could play a Louisville squad that is criminally underrated. Oh, and they’ll be playing 75 miles from their home court compared to the 500 miles that Auburn has to travel. Expect a surprising home crowd for Chucky Hepburn and the Cardinals. UC San Diego is 35 in the NET and only has 4 losses on the season. Michigan is 23 in the NET and was slipping to end the season before a run in the Big Ten Tournament. I expect UC San Diego to not only get the 12-5 upset but then to also make it to the sweet sixteen, winning against an A&M team that I have not been a fan of all season. Tom Izzo shouldn’t have any issues with his quadrant winning against Bryant and Shaka Dumb. After that, all Michigan State would have to do is beat upset picks that would lose momentum after the first weekend.
West Region
My pick to win the West region is the number 1 seed, Florida. Florida should have an easy path to the Sweet Sixteen, facing either an Oklahoma team they already beat by 22 in the regular season or a weak UConn team. Colorado State should be everyone’s 12-5 upset pick going into bracket season. Colorado State won 10 games in a row en route to be the only bid stealer this year. Yet, they are 2 spots ahead of Memphis in the NET and 9 spots ahead in the KenPom rankings. After their upset win, however, they’ll most likely play a Maryland team whose only blemishes the past two months are two buzzer-beater losses to Michigan teams. Mizzou faded late into the season while Drake has been one of the best non power conference teams this season. I’ll pick Drake to win against Mizzou, but then lose to a very good Texas Tech team that’s 7 in the NET and KenPom. Calipari’s Razorbacks should be able to win against possibly Bill Self’s worst Kansas team ever. And boy do I hope they do, because then we get a Rick Pitino vs John Calipari matchup in the round of 32. St John’s is a much better team and should win, but it would be a wildly entertaining matchup. After the Sweet Sixteen is set, I’m going chalk as St Johns and Florida are steps above Maryland And Texas Tech. I originally had St Johns winning the entire NCAA Tournament, but after watching highlights from Florida’s SEC Championship run and reviewing their statistics, I think I have to go with Florida winning this region.
East Region
My pick to win the East region is the number 1 seed, Duke. And I hate myself for writing that out, but unfortunately, they are a very good basketball team with the best college basketball player in the country. As long as he’s not in a wheelchair that is. They have the easiest route to the Sweet Sixteen as I would pick Mississippi State and Baylor to lose in the first round if I could. Oregon gets the worst 12 seed and should make it to the second round. Arizona on the other hand, gets my pick for the best 13 seed in Akron. If Arizona has one of their all-too-common off nights, Akron could easily push past the Wildcats. Oregon gets the nod over Akron, silencing the Zips. Now, on to Wisconsin. I know everyone is up in arms over their placement in Denver for one of the first games of the tournament. Montana has a 2-13 overall record in the NCAA tournament and has never beaten a power conference team. Don’t think too hard about the round of 64 matchup. The round of 32 matchup against BYU is a bit scarier. Assuming the Badgers have all their starters healthy going into the matchup, I would give the edge ever so slightly to Wisconsin. Alabama gets an easy path to the Sweet Sixteen with the only worthwhile team they could face being a St. Mary’s team that has underperformed their last couple of NCAA Tournament appearances. Duke should breeze past Oregon assuming Cooper Flag is healthy. Wisconsin vs Alabama would be a fireworks matchup with two of the best offenses in the tournament facing off. I give Wisconsin the edge here based solely on the fact that Wisconsin can defend better than Alabama can. That of course leaves with a 2015 title match rematch in Duke vs Wisconsin. I hate to say it, but Duke should blow Wisconsin out to get to another Final Four.
Midwest Region
My pick to win the Midwest Region is the number 1 seed Houston. Weirdly enough, Houston’s toughest matchup might be their second game against Gonzaga. Gonzaga is a statistical anomaly, ranking 8 in the NET and 8 in KenPom. However, they’re only 10-8 in Quad 1 and 2 games. Gonzaga’s metrics benefit from blowing out teams they should beat while losing games by only an average of 4.5 points per game. Houston, while the better team, could be without one of its star players, J’Wan Roberts. If J’Wan plays, I expect Houston to make the Sweet Sixteen. If he doesn’t, don’t be surprised if Gonzaga can pull off the upset. Clemson and Purdue should avoid the trendy upset picks. The media loves High Point over Purdue, but don’t be fooled by the hype. The Big South is historically one of the worst performing conferences in the NCAA tournament with only one win, ever. I give Clemson the nod to the Sweet Sixteen as the more consistent team throughout the year. Assuming Illinois and Kentucky make the second round, that would make for a very Boom or Bust game of 32. With Illinois healthy for the first time in a long while, I have them making it to the Sweet Sixteen for the second year in a row. UCLA unfortunately has to play a game in the Eastern Time Zone, so I have to give the game to Utah State. If I had to pick a 15 seed to win their first game, I would go with Wofford as they are the quintessential hot team that ran through their conference tournament as a major underdog. However, Tennessee should be able to handle Wofford, followed by Utah State afterward. Houston gets the edge over Clemson, again assuming they are at full strength. I like Illinois over Tennessee as Illinois feels like an underrated team with a chip on their shoulder due to their midseason slump. I don’t see that team breathing a healthy Houston however.
Final Four
What a boring Final Four. Three 1 seeds and a 2 seed. This might be the season to believe in the chalk as the top 4 seeds are that much better than the rest of the field. Since 2002, there have been 4 teams to have KenPom Net Efficiency rankings at +35 or higher: ‘08 Kansas, ‘15 Kentucky, ‘21 Gonzaga, and ‘24 UConn. This year, all 4 top seeds have a + 35 Efficiency ranking. The top of this year’s competition is insanely good. Going off that, I’m picking Florida and Duke to make the Championship game in a match up of the two best teams in the KenPom. Because I can’t ever pick Duke to win a championship on principle, I’m going with Florida to win the SEC’s first NCAA Championship since 2012.
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This article was written by Jordan Longseth and edited by Hayden Breene.