Who doesn’t love Cinderella stories? No Cinderella has actually won the NCAA basketball tournament, but damn is it fun to watch them win in the first round of the tournament.
Off the top of my head, I can recall teams like 2013’s Florida Gulf Coast, 2018’s Loyola Chicago, 2022’s Saint Peter’s, and 2023’s Princeton more so than the teams that won the national title every year. The best Cinderellas populate the Mid Majors, so that’s where I want to focus your attention today. We’ll keep the analysis short today. I’ll be giving you the betting favorite, my pick, and a team that could surprise from the field. Odds are taken from sources when available. Some tournament seeds aren’t set yet, so official odds aren’t available yet. Without further ado, let’s get into the 4 Mid Major Conferences that could see more than one invitee.
Atlantic 10
The Favorite: VCU
Jordan’s Pick: VCU
Team to watch: George Mason
Mountain West
The Favorite: New Mexico
Jordan’s Pick: San Diego State
Team to watch: Colorado State
The American
The Favorite: Memphis
Jordan’s Pick: Memphis
Team to watch: North Texas
West Coast
The Favorite: Gonzaga (-130)
Jordan’s Pick: St. Mary’s (+135)
Team to watch: San Francisco (+2500)
The Mountain West and West Coast will both send more than one team to March Madness, while the A10 and the American could both send a bid stealer if Memphis or VCU loses. In the West Coast, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are heavily favored, but don’t discount San Francisco, a team that is currently 62nd in the NET. New Mexico, Boise State, Utah State, and San Diego State are all teams that have been on the edge of the bubble all season, and all have a good chance to make the tournament. However, don’t discount Colorado State. They are 56 in the NET, but 2nd in the Mountain West. George Mason and North Texas are both the second favorites to win their conferences, should the favorites stumble. Now, let’s get to the single bid conferences.
America East
The Favorite: Bryant (+100)
Jordan’s Pick: Bryant (+100)
Team to watch: Vermont (+180)
Atlantic Sun
The Favorite: Lipscomb (-200)
Jordan’s Pick: Lipscomb (-200)
Team to watch: North Alabama (+250)
Big Sky
The Favorite: Northern Colorado (+150)
Jordan’s Pick: Montana (+300)
Team to watch: Portland State (+500)
Big South
The Favorite: High Point (-250)
Jordan’s Pick: High Point (-250)
Team to watch: UNC Asheville (+900)
Big West
The Favorite: UC San Diego
Jordan’s Pick: UC San Diego
Team to watch: UC Irvine
UC San Diego should make the tournament if they happen to fall to UC Irvine, but given the past couple of years of NCAA precedent, that, unfortunately, will not happen. Indiana State was 28 in the NET last year, while UC San Diego is only 35 this year. Sadly, not high enough for the small conferences
Colonial Athletic
The Favorite: UNC Wilmington (+190)
Jordan’s Pick: Towson (+300)
Team to watch: Charleston (+300)
Conference USA
The Favorite: Liberty
Jordan’s Pick: Liberty
Team to watch: Middle Tennessee
Horizon
The Favorite: Robert Morris (+275)
Jordan’s Pick: Cleveland State (+350)
Team to watch: Oakland (+1500)
As I was writing this article, I had to change my pick to Cleveland State thanks to Oakland’s upset win against Milwaukee. Watch out for Oakland as they beat the statistically best Horizon team, according to the NET and KenPom.
Ivy League
The Favorite: Yale
Jordan’s Pick: Yale
Team to watch: Cornell
Metro Atlantic
The Favorite: Quinnipiac
Jordan’s Pick: Quinnipiac
Team to watch: Merrimack
Mid American
The Favorite: Akron
Jordan’s Pick: Akron
Team to watch: Ohio
Mid Eastern
The Favorite: Norfolk State
Jordan’s Pick: Norfolk State
Team to watch: South Carolina St
Missouri Valley
The Favorite: Drake (-110)
Jordan’s Pick: Drake (-110)
Team to watch: Bradley (+325)
Northeast
The Favorite: Central Connecticut State (-210)
Jordan’s Pick: Central Connecticut State (-210)
Team to watch: Long Island (+350)
Ohio Valley
The Favorite: Southeast Missouri State (+160)
Jordan’s Pick: Southeast Missouri State (+160)
Team to watch: Little Rock (+400)
Patriot
The Favorite: Bucknell (-120)
Jordan’s Pick: Bucknell (-120)
Team to watch: American (+325)
SoCon
The Favorite: Chattanooga (+250)
Jordan’s Pick: Samford (+400)
Team to watch: East Tennessee State (+600)
Southland
The Favorite: McNeese State (-500)
Jordan’s Pick: McNeese State (-500)
Team to watch: Nicholls State (+1000)
Summit League
The Favorite: St. Thomas (+220)
Jordan’s Pick: St. Thomas (+260)
Team to watch: Omaha (+475)
The two favorites to win the Summit lost Friday. South Dakota State and North Dakota State were both at +230 to win and lost to teams not even close to their level. St. Thomas is the next favorite up, while Omaha is a sneaky 1 seeded team that’s looked down upon.
Sun Belt
The Favorite: Arkansas St (+200)
Jordan’s Pick: Arkansas St (+200)
Team to watch: JMU (+400)
The Sun Belt Conference’s bracket is wild. The whole bracket is a 2 sided gauntlet that vastly benefits the best seeded teams. If a bottom seeded team won the tournament, they would have to win 7 games in 7 days. Absolutely insane. I love college basketball.
Southwestern Athletic
The Favorite: Southern
Jordan’s Pick: Southern
Team to watch: Jackson State
Western Athletic
The Favorite: Grand Canyon
Jordan’s Pick: Grand Canyon
Team to watch: Utah Valley
I will leave you with my 3 mid majors to watch for a Cinderella run going into March Madness. I would count on one of these teams to make a run in the tournament (assuming they make the tournament, of course):
- Akron Zips
- UC San Diego Tritons
- Drake Bulldogs
Want more Walk On Fan?
Check out our bracket update from earlier this week.
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