Who is winning the East? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?
These will be my record predictions for the Big Ten East. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the B1G East.
7th – Indiana – O/U win total: 3.5
Ohio State – L
Indiana State (Friday) – W
vs Louisville (Indianapolis) – L
Akron – W
At Maryland – L
Bye
At Michigan – L
Rutgers (HC) – L
At Penn State – L
Wisconsin – L
At Illinois – L
Michigan State – L
At Purdue – L
For the skeptic who thinks I’m being harsh with this prediction, there are 2 games I could see going the other way. The first is at Purdue, but only if Purdue has a late season collapse. And the other is home vs Rutgers if Rutgers has a mid season collapse.
Indiana is bad; Tom Allen is likely coaching his last year there.
Record: 2-10 (0-9)
Pick: Under 3.5
6th – Rutgers – O/U win total: 4.5
Northwestern (Sunday) – W
Temple – W
Virginia Tech – W
At Michigan – L
Wagner – W
At Wisconsin – L
Michigan State (HC) – L
At Indiana – W
Bye
Ohio State – L
At Iowa – L
At Penn State – L
Maryland – L
Wins vs Virginia Tech and at Indiana will give this team some hope in their quest for bowl eligibility. As usual, the rest of the schedule is a gauntlet. If that game in week 13 against Maryland is for bowl eligibility like I’ve predicted, maybe they outperform even my expectations.
Record: 5-7 (2-7)
Pick: Don’t Bet
5th – Michigan State – O/U win total: 5.5
Central Michigan (Friday) – W
Richmond – W
Washington – L
Maryland (HC) – L
At Iowa – L
Bye
At Rutgers – W
Michigan – L
At Minnesota – L
Nebraska – L
At Ohio State – L
At Indiana – W
Vs Penn State (Friday – Detroit) – L
I am lower on Michigan State than most. I think they’ve lost too much to the transfer portal. They were a mess last year, and I think that continues. This is a team that lives and dies by the transfer portal right now, so they have a lot of volatility in possible outcomes.
Sparty comes out ahead of Rutgers because they have the same conference record, and I have MSU winning head-to-head.
Record: 4-8 (2-7)
Pick: Under 5.5
4th – Maryland – O/U win total: 7.5
Towson – W
Charlotte – W
Virginia (Friday) – W
At Michigan State – W
Indiana – W
At Ohio State – L
Illinois (HC) – W
Bye
At Northwestern – W
Penn State – L
At Nebraska – W
Michigan – L
At Rutgers – W
They have a veteran QB, high upside transfers along the OL, and their head coach, Mike Locksley, has been around long enough to establish his system. I have them winning the games they should win, and losing to the Big 3. If they were to drop a 4th game, I’d keep my eye on Illinois, that team could be dangerous this year. Thankfully for Maryland, they play them at home.
Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Pick: Over 7.5
T-1st – Penn State – O/U win total: 9.5
West Virginia – W
Delaware – W
At Illinois – W
Iowa (White Out) – W
At Northwestern – W
Bye
UMass (HC) – W
At Ohio State – L
Indiana – W
At Maryland – W
Michigan – W
Rutgers – W
Vs Michigan State (Friday – Detroit) – W
If Quarterback Drew Allar is average, this team will be good. If he’s great, like he’s supposed to be, they can make the playoffs. Penn State has similar talent to Michigan, they have just been held back by mediocre QB play from Sean Clifford in recent years. Watch out for one of the most popular dark horse picks of the offseason to deliver.
Record: 11-1 (8-1)
Pick: Over 9.5
T-1st – Michigan – O/U win total: 10.5
East Carolina – W
UNLV – W
Bowling Green – W
Rutgers (HC) – W
At Nebraska – W
At Minnesota – W
Indiana – W
At Michigan State – W
Bye
Purdue – W
At Penn State – L
At Maryland – W
Ohio State – W
Michigan brings back nearly all of the team last year that beat Ohio State, won the B1G, and went to the playoff. So, I have them beating Ohio State (they are built physically in the middle of the field, OSU’s main weakness), and then… I don’t know what will happen. Because even with a win in The Game, I don’t have them winning the East. If we start talking about playoff resumes, their non-conference slate is terrible. I think they settle for a NY6 bowl outside the playoff unless they go 13-0 and win the B1G.
Record: 11-1 (8-1)
Pick: Don’t Bet
T-1st – Ohio State – O/U win total: 10.5
At Indiana – W
Youngstown State – W
Western Kentucky – W
At Notre Dame – W
Bye
Maryland (HC) – W
At Purdue – W
Penn State – W
At Wisconsin – W
At Rutgers – W
Michigan State – W
Minnesota – W
At Michigan – L
Undefeated going into Michigan, and it might not even matter. Notre Dame and At Wisconsin are very losable games, but Ohio State is absolutely loaded. Early mock drafts have them sending the most players out of every college team to the NFL next spring. That’s what Georgia did the last 2 years, Alabama the year before them, and LSU before that. So just the last 4 title winners.
If Ohio State screws this up, it’s because of coaching, not talent.
Record: 11-1 (8-1)
Pick: Don’t Bet
So how did a 3 way tie with Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan get us to this point? (I have the home team winning each game of the mini round robin)
We would end up at the 5th multi team tiebreaker rule for the B1G:
Compare the conference records of the tied teams’ opponents in the opposite division, i.e. who had the hardest conference schedule.
Penn State is screwed here. They play Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern. The expected 0 in the win column for Northwestern is a killer.
Michigan and Ohio State both play Purdue and Minnesota, so they will have an equal number of wins there.
The 3rd west opponent for each:
Ohio State plays Wisconsin
Michigan plays Nebraska
If Wisconsin has more conference wins than Nebraska, OSU wins the East. If Nebraska has more wins, then it would go to Michigan. So I’ve tipped my hand here, I think Wisco will have the better record.
B1G East Winner: Ohio State
But who will they face out of the West?
In the coming weeks, we will put out a B1G West prediction in this format as well as predictions for the other P5 conferences.
*Odds listed refer to spreads taken from DraftKings at the time of writing
Want more Walk On Fan?
Check out last Saturday’s article where we look into the NBC/Peacock deal and how it impacts the B1G.
This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene