What is it about a little number next to a team name that makes us want to watch them more?
Texas at Alabama was the most anticipated game of the year – that can’t be disputed. But, week 4 is definitely the best full weekend of the year so far. And it’s not close. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being the best week of the whole season (rivalry week is still pretty great). Going into the season, I wrote about the games I thought would be the best in week 4. Check it out if you want to see what the storylines going into the season were.
There is a packed Saturday full of great games. Let’s start with the ones everyone wants to hear about.
Ranked vs. Ranked
Ranked on ranked violence, that’s what the fans want. People need to be told who matters and who doesn’t. It makes life easier for them. Are there other games that matter? Sure. But that’s not why we’re here. We’re here for two reasons:
- Ranked vs. ranked games are usually darn good games.
- A ranked team loses no matter what, and we love watching the big brands go down.
This week there are 6 ranked matchups. If that seems like a lot, it’s because it is. The last time there were 6 ranked matchups in 1 CFB weekend was 2006. So it’s been a while since we’ve had it this good.
Thank the Pac-12 for having half of these matchups.
- Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing
The Game You’ll be Watching:
19 Colorado at 10 Oregon (-21) – 2:30 PM CST
Colorado’s improbable yet inevitable ascension continues, and everybody is watching. Oregon may be ranked 10th, but we all know why you’re watching this game. Sanders. Both Sanders really. Week 1 I thought it was silly that Deion would have his son start at QB. Now I look silly. Shedeur is making a case to be drafted in the top 10, and it’s only been 3 games.
Everybody’s watching Deion isn’t an exaggeration either. Last week Colorado kicked off at 10 PM Eastern. That didn’t stop over 9 million from tuning in to see what magic the Buffs would pull off this time. The 2nd most watched game wasn’t even close to catching Colorado (5.4 Million for Georgia vs. SCAR).
The biggest letdown of this game: Colorado is missing their best player. 2-way extraordinaire Travis Hunter will be out for a few weeks with a lacerated spleen. Early in the game last week he was taken out by a dirty hit from a Colorado State Safety. I’d suggest you don’t go after the individual though. Colorado State’s game plan was clearly to play dirty. They had 9 personal fouls throughout the game, many of which were late hits. The blame should be directed at the Ram’s program and Head Coach for such an underhanded game plan.
Oregon is 10th, and I haven’t said a word about them till now. Autzen Stadium is one of the top 3 hardest stadiums to play at in the Pac-12 (they are probably #1 – just don’t tell Washington and Utah). QB Bo Nix was a preseason Heisman candidate, but he isn’t getting much talk right now. Sanders has literally sucked all the oxygen out of the room. Beating Colorado, and looking good doing it, would go a long way to putting him back on top of the Heisman talk.
Outside of QB, Oregon is just a well-rounded good team. Good run game, good front 7, and good secondary. The only minor (very minor) concern: the O-Line has very little experience. That doesn’t even mean they’re bad, I think they’re actually pretty good, but it is still a concern.
The Other Ranked Games
22 UCLA at 11 Utah (-5.5) – 2:30 PM CST
A fantastic QB matchup… maybe.
We still don’t know if Cam Rising will be good to go for Utah’s Pac-12 opener. If he can, this game will have an interesting QB dynamic. Experienced vs. Green.
Cam Rising – 6th year in College
Dante Moore – 1st year true freshman
15 Ole Miss at 13 Alabama (-7) – 2:30 PM CST
Is Saban losing it? Last week was a disaster vs. USF, and QBs Buchner and Simpson were uninspiring. Time to continue the QB hokey-pokey and put Jalen Milroe back in this week.
Ole Miss’ best win is against a Tulane team that was missing their QB1, so we don’t really know how good they are. If they are going to beat Bama, it’s going to be by abusing their unexpectedly bad O-Line to a pulp in the trenches.
Going into the season Bama was expected to have a top 3 O-Line in the country. Instead, they have given up the most sacks out of all Power 5 schools. That is concerning.
14 Oregon State at 21 Washington State (+3) – 6:00 PM CST
The Pac-2 Showdown. The Remnants. The Leftovers. The Orphans. The Future Mountain West Championship.
Call this game all the above and more.
The death of the Pac-12 sucks. In 2024 there will no longer be a premiere conference exclusively on the West Coast. Everybody from the Pac-12 found a home for 2024 and beyond, everybody except these 2 teams. This should be a great game and the winner has an inside shot to win the conference in its last year of existence.
6 Ohio State at 9 Notre Dame (+3) – 6:30 PM CST
A top 10 vs. top 10 game. Our second of the season. Week 1, I think most fans would’ve taken OSU in this one. Now, Vegas still thinks OSU is going to come out on top. Huh.
Notre Dame has looked better on offense, has the better QB, and is at home – in primetime. Yet, Notre Dame is still the underdog, I don’t get it. (PTHD?)
Regardless of all the reasons I think Notre Dame should have an advantage, Ohio State has the best player in this game. He might be the best player, at any position, in the country. This will be the night we are introduced to WR Marvin Harrison Jr. on the national stage.
24 Iowa at 7 Penn State (-14.5) – 6:30 PM CST
I love the White Out. Iowa should too, they won the last White Out they played in (in 2009).
In reality, though, Iowa knows the White Out is a daunting challenge. The White Out game is the biggest home-field advantage in college football. Most power rating systems and matchup models (the stuff Vegas uses to set lines) set the White Out as a 6.5 point advantage for Penn State (over a neutral field).
If that’s true, then were this game to be played at Iowa, Penn State would only be favored by 5-ish. That’s the impact of the White Out.
Outside of that, I have no idea what to expect from this game. I’m very very high on Penn State, but Iowa hasn’t been as bad as I expected thus far. Iowa’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game late. But Penn State’s defense is no slouch; Iowa might have a tough time scoring in Happy Valley.
This was supposed to be Game of the Week
4 Florida State at Clemson (+2.5) – 11:00 AM CST
A preseason top 10 matchup, Clemson just couldn’t hold up their end of the deal.
This was supposed to be the game of the week. A preview of the ACC title game. Well, it still could be. Instead, Clemson isn’t even ranked. They got embarrassed by Duke, and haven’t played any consequential games since.
Florida State handled things on their end, beating LSU in week 1 so soundly they launched into the top 5. The top 5, remember back when Clemson was a top 5 team? It was… only a year ago? Clemson was a top 5 team to start 2022. I guess a lot can change in a year. A win here would launch them back into the top 10 – I’d bet.
2.5 though. That’s a very small line. Clemson has the ability to win this game, it just doesn’t feel likely. I personally think FSU QB Jordan Travis and WR Keon Coleman light Clemson up. The Noles would solidify their spot back on top of the ACC with a comfortable win in Death Valley.
Other Games of Note \ The Big 12 Exists
Oklahoma at Cincinnati (+14.5) – 11:00 AM CST
The newcomer hosts the runaway. This is Cincinnati’s first year in the Big 12, and Oklahoma’s last. It’s not often Nippert Stadium gets to host a team the caliber of Oklahoma. The fans should be wild for this one.
SMU at TCU (-6.5) – 11:00 AM CST
A rivalry game in week 4? Why not? These 2 Dallas teams have played all but 7 years since 1915. But lately, there has been some extra spice to the rivalry: TCU’s current head coach, Sonny Dykes, came from none other than SMU. There’s some extra bitterness behind this game since that move in Dec. of 2021.
BYU at Kansas (-9.5) – 2:30 PM CST
An undefeated conference matchup! And no one cares, how unfortunate. I guess BYU and Kansas don’t quite move the needle like Oregon, Ohio State, and UCLA do. But this game is huge for the Big 12 standings; and with all the expected chaos this week, the winner will likely be ranked by Sunday.
Spread Picks*:
Below are the only games I would actually consider betting myself. I’ll track my record for these picks all season so we can see if I actually know anything.
Friday:
Wisconsin (-5.5)
Most people aren’t very high on Wisconsin right now, and rightfully so. But Purdue is bad, real real bad.
Air Force (-5.5)
Air Force is one of the 4 best teams in the Mountain West. San Jose State is one of the 4 worst. 5.5 doesn’t seem like enough points.
Saturday:
Florida State (-2.5)
Florida State is for real. Clemson showed us who they are in week 1. The Duke game wasn’t a fluke.
Texas A&M (-8.5)
I’m pretty low on Auburn, hence, I think A&M wins this game comfortably at home.
Army (+13.5)
Syracuse is 3-0, but how good are they? They beat 2 nobody’s and Purdue (Remember, I’m low on Purdue). Army is Syracuse’s toughest game to date. They could even pull the upset.
Maryland (-7.5) – Favorite Pick
This is a classic strength-on-weakness game. Maryland loves to throw the ball, and Sparty’s secondary might as well be a sieve. Maryland scores as much as they want to.
LSU (-17.5)
If FSU is good, then LSU simply lost to a good team in week 1. LSU is still good enough to win the SEC and blowout teams like Arkansas at home.
Notre Dame (+3) Moneyline – Upset Pick
Ohio State has had trouble scoring on bad teams, how will they fare on the road against a good one? The real decider for me: Notre Dame has the better QB, and I don’t think it’s close.
Washington (-20.5)
Washington is a woodchipper that covers every week. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the SEC West.
How I’ve Done so far this Season:
Upset Picks must be +3 or greater to be “Upsets”
Favorite Picks: 2-1 (Mertz beat Tennessee)
Upset Picks: 3-1 (I didn’t pick an upset last week)
Total Record ATS: 13-10 (3-3 last week – could’ve been worse)
*These picks are to express my opinion on games from a point spread perspective. I am not advocating for you, the reader, to gamble on any of these games. Please bet responsibly.
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This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene