Cole Tollison

It’s all about the Money.

With the Pac-12 teetering on the edge of existence, schools are having to make tough decisions about where they fit in the conference landscape. Stay put, or move somewhere else? It’s a big decision, with lots of moving parts. But the primary diver: Money.

Money is why conference realignment is constantly in the news right now

But how much money?

Well, let’s look at the conferences. I’ll try to clarify what is rumor, and what is certain.

Big 12: Concrete numbers, Traditional media partners

The Big 12 members will make 31.7 Million per team, on Avg, for the 6 years of the deal (2025 through 2030). That is up from the previous deal which averaged 22 Million per year.

The new deal is with ESPN and FOX:

• About 20 Million from ESPN
• About 11.7 Million from FOX

ESPN has it in writing that up to 4 new members will be guaranteed a full share of their 20 million chunk (as long as they were P5 members before they joined).

FOX has it in writing that up to 2 new members will be guaranteed a full share of their 11.7 million chunk (as long as they …

Adding Oregon and Washington feels inevitable.

Adding Stanford and Cal… that’s the surprise.

It always starts with money.

Let’s say the average media payout per B1G team is 70 million per year. I think that’s a little low, but that is a very reported/assumed number. 

Will FOX, CBS, and NBC agree to pay a combined extra 280 million per year to add those 4 schools to the Big Ten (ignoring inventory for now)?

Not a chance.

What about half share for each – 35 million per school per year, 140 million total?

Now we can have a discussion. This is likely where the conversation starts with money.

It’s what Rutgers and Maryland did when they entered the B1G. They took half shares each for their first media deal.

Is a half share enough for those 4 schools?

YES.

It’s kinda that simple, but I’ll give you a list to make it clear. And remember, I think we are low balling the numbers a bit.

• 35 million is more than the rumored 20 million base the Pac-12 is offered by Apple
• 35 million is more than the 31.7 million the Big 12 is locked in for through 2030
• They would be

This is Part 8 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

Feel free to flip 1st and 2nd if you feel like it. For my rankings, I see 1st place as a matchup between undefeated teams. In the 2nd place game, I expect there to already be a loss for one of the participants. Also, what’s up with the ACC? They haven’t been featured in this series in a while. 

3rd – Utah at USC

Utah won their conference 2 years in a row. I don’t think anybody remembers that. USC has the reigning Heisman winner. I think everybody knows that.

Utah beat USC twice in 2022 and has their QB returning. So, why is USC the Pac-12 favorite? Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams. That’s all that needs to be said. Lincoln expects to return USC to the glory days of the early 2000s, and Williams is almost a lock for 1st overall in the 2024 draft.

Utah is Wisconsin west. They outperform their recruiting rankings by having phenomenal development and playing …

This is Part 7 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

Three more rivalry games are highlighted here in week 7. When a pair of rivals are good at the same time, it makes for some of the best storylines of the season. The loser of these games will likely carry a chip on their shoulder all the way till next year when they will be gearing up for a revenge game. 

3rd – Iowa at Wisconsin

Every year this game determines who wins the B1G West, except when Northwestern wins, or when Purdue wins, or it’s Minnesota vs Wisconsin that decides the division. Am I being clear enough? Iowa vs Wisconsin for the West crown is a lazy take that pundits spin because they can’t remember who’s in the West.

The Dairy Air Raid will probably give Badgers fans a heart attack every time the ball travels more than 20 air yards. They aren’t used to that sort of risk-taking (and Mertz could throw a pick on a 10-yard out route …

This is Part 6 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

Sorry SEC, I just don’t see it this week. You may have the best players, but at least for this week, you don’t have the best games.

3rd – Michigan at Minnesota

A B1G trophy game. One of many, but also the original B1G trophy game:

The Little Brown Jug.

Minnesota is a program that has turned its fortunes around after the arrival of eccentric head coach PJ Fleck. They have consistently kept up with Wisconsin and even beaten a top-10 Penn State squad. But Fleck has yet to beat Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa. Minnesota thinks they can win the West with new starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis and returning #1 WR Chris Autman-Bell. Winning this one might be required to achieve that goal because this year their schedule is a gauntlet. 

Back-to-back road games for Michigan make this a tricky early part of the schedule. This will be the most formidable defense Michigan has to face so far. Can Blake …

Streaming was supposed to kill cable, now I have both and it sucks.

Peacock, the streaming service owned by NBC, was already in the CFB world, but it was more like a toe in the pool, testing the waters. The NBC contract with Notre Dame lets them show one home game per season exclusively on Peacock.

This was met with collective groans from the college football community.

Washington at Michigan State is exclusively on Peacock. When the B1G media deal was announced on Aug 18th, 2022 it was also announced that eight B1G home games per year would be shown exclusively on Peacock. 

Let’s look at the situation with Peacock and B1G streaming a little closer

There are some insights to be gleaned, and some unintended consequences for teams that didn’t even sign up for this (looking at you Washington). This was made slightly worse this May when it was revealed that the media deal wasn’t finalized. There were some hangups with the NBC details of the deal.

1 – NBC was given the 2026 B1G Championship game, a game owned by FOX

• The fix here was simple, pay FOX $40 million. In an $8+ billion deal, this is not

This is Part 5 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

Week 5 has slim pickings for top games at first glance. But I think some gems will emerge after we’ve made it through the beginning of the season. We’re leaning into big brands and big-name players this week, so I imagine these games will be heavily talked about once we get to this point in the season.

3rd – Georgia at Auburn

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. If you’ve read any other installments in this series, you may have realized I give a bump to rivalry games. The fans care more, the environments are more hostile, and any outcome is possible. This is especially true at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where some of the craziest CFB games this century have been played (the kick-six taking the crown). 

Auburn is not expected to do much in 2023, but they could easily be 3-1 or possibly 4-0 going into this one. Georgia on the other hand should be rolling full steam ahead by week 5. …