Week 3 – Some Thoughts on Some Games

Rivalries in week 3? Only 1 ranked matchup.. on Saturday. And a traditional Rose Bowl game in primetime.

THE BEST RANKED VS RANKED GAME:
20 Arizona at 14 Kansas State

Friday Night Football for this non-con showdown between ranked Big 12 schools. Wait, did I read that right? Yes, despite both schools being in the same conference, this game will not count towards the league standings. This is because the game was scheduled before the realignment shenanigans. 

THE OTHER RANKED VS RANKED GAME:
24 Boston College at 6 Missouri

Florida State was ranked when they lost to Boston College, so now Boston College gets to be ranked. That’s a nice little prize. It won’t last long though, Mizzouri likely runs away with this one. 

ONE-SIDED RIVALRY GAMES:
9 Oregon at Oregon State
Washington State vs Washington (Seattle)
18 Notre Dame at Purdue

Big Ten rivalry week in *checks notes* … week 3. Historically these are games where the big brand crushes the little guy and moves on. But Oregon, Washington, and Notre Dame should all be on upset watch this week. ND did manage to blow it last week against Northern Illinois as a 28 point favorite. 

A

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Wisco Wednesday: It’s Bama Time

Last week was a little better. But with the elephant rolling into town, what can Wisconsin do to have a chance?

Looking Back: 

South Dakota – 13
Wisconsin – 27

Wisconsin won by 14 in week 1, then did it again in week 2. So did things get better, or worse?

Despite the opponent being from a lower division, this was actually a tougher matchup. South Dakota is rated higher than Western Michigan by advanced metrics and Vegas had the spread tighter (19.5 vs 24.5).

Wisconsin’s offense isn’t pretty, it’s actually quite bad. But, it is measurably better than last year. Across 2 games this season Wisconsin has had 6 drives of 13+ plays. Last SEASON Wisconsin had 5 total. Wisconsin can move the ball, it’s just ugly. The Badgers are currently 133rd of 134 teams in explosive play rate – i.e. the offense is the opposite of explosive (last is Air Force).  

Looking forward

Game Preview: Alabama 

#4 Alabama at Wisconsin 

Where: Camp Randall Stadium

When: Saturday, 9/14 – 11:00 AM (CST)

How to Watch: FOX

Spread: Alabama -16.5

O/U: 50.5

Alabama Crimson Tide’s 2023 Record: 12-2
Won the SEC Championship Game vs Georgia
Lost in the CFP Semifinals

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Wisco Wednesday: Improvement is Mandatory 

Week 1 was almost a disaster. South Dakota is a real threat. We need a sign that Wisconsin is better than last year.

Looking Back: 

Western Michigan – 14
Wisconsin – 28

Wisconsin’s easiest game of the year, and they won by 14. The Badgers were favored by 24, yet were losing in the 4th quarter. That is unacceptable. Unfortunately, this offense looked a lot like last year’s offense. A subpar run game paired with a screen heavy passing attack. They did use different personnel groupings more than last year, so that’s something. There were often 2 RBs or 2 TEs on the field for about half the plays… It didn’t help.

The defense was great and terrible. The secondary was great. The run defense was terrible. Combine those two things, and the defense was terrible. Any team that has a run game with a pulse can run on this Badgers D-Line. Changes are required if Wisconsin wants to win more than 5 games this year.

Last week Wisconsin wasn’t good enough. They got the win, but there was no evidence that this team is measurably better than last year’s team. Fickell needs to make the necessary adjustments to prove …

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Tolly Predictions: The Playoffs

Who are the conference winners? Is the playoff dominated by the SEC and B1G? Bracketology has infected college football. 

These are my preseason picks for the playoff.

Yes, I know, Florida State already has a loss from week 0. I was never going to pick them to win the ACC (see the top ACC team in my preseason top 25 as evidence). I’m late, but this is better than never. 

Conference Championships:

SEC: Georgia over Ole Miss
Big Ten: Ohio State over Oregon
ACC: Miami over Virginia Tech
Big 12: Oklahoma State over Utah
American: Memphis over UTSA

Round 1:

9 Michigan at 8 Penn State 
10 Texas at 7 Ole Miss
11 Notre Dame at 6 Alabama
12 Memphis at 5 Oregon

Quarterfinals:

1 Georgia vs 8 Penn State
2 Ohio State vs 10 Texas
3 Miami vs 6 Alabama
4 Oklahoma State vs 5 Oregon

Semifinals:

1 Georgia vs 5 Oregon 
2 Ohio State vs 6 Alabama

Championship Game:

1 Georgia vs 2 Ohio State

National Champion:

The Ohio State Buckeyes

Want more Walk On Fan? 

Check out our B1G predictions that came out yesterday.

Follow us on Twitter (or X) @here.

This article was written by Cole

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Tolly Predictions: The Big Ten

Who is winning the B1G? How many playoff caliber teams are there? These are our projections for the order of finish in the B1G this season. 

I have game by game predictions for every team, so these predictions are mathematically possible. I used the B1G tie breakers to get the order of finish… but there is a log jam at 3-6 in conference play that I struggled to figure out. We’ll just assume I got it right. 

Conference record shown in ().

Bottom Feeders

18th: Purdue 2-10 (1-8) 
17th: UCLA 3-9 (1-8)
16th: Northwestern 4-8 (2-7)
15th: Michigan State 5-7 (2-7)
14th: Illinois 5-7 (3-6) 

These are the bad teams. Will they all be bad? Doubtful. I’m probably underestimating at least one of these teams. That said, if your team plays one of these teams, you’d better win.  

Barely Bowl Teams

13th: Maryland 6-6 (3-6)
12th: Indiana 6-6 (3-6)
11th: Minnesota 6-6 (3-6)
10th: Washington 6-6 (3-6)

Bowl eligibility, that’s what we have here. That would be wildly over performing for Indiana, and a massive letdown for Washington.

Good But Not Great

9th: Rutgers 7-5 (5-4)
8th: USC 7-5 (5-4)
7th: Iowa 9-3 (6-3)
6th: Wisconsin 8-4 (6-3)
5th: Nebraska …

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Wisco Wednesday: Football is Here

Only 2 more days. What to know for Western Michigan. How many Badgers made the 53 at the next level?

Game Preview: Western Michigan

Western Michigan at Wisconsin 

Where: Camp Randall Stadium

When: Friday, 8/30 – 8:00 PM (CST)

How to Watch: FS1

Spread: Wisconsin (-23.5)

O/U: 55.5 

Western Michigan Broncos 2023 Record: 4-8

Western Michigan is mostly unknown. So much so that even Fickell admitted this in his pregame presser on Monday. They have new offensive and defensive coordinators and had plenty of roster churn last offseason. The main concern for Wisconsin (minor concern) is the returning QB/RB combo of Kaleb Eleby and Jalen Buckley who finished strong last season. 

What concerns me about Wisconsin:

The DL was by far the shakiest unit on the team all offseason. Now, Senior starter James Thompson Jr. is out for the season, making a weak unit a genuine liability. If the Badgers can’t stop the run against Western Michigan, it’s an ill omen for the rest of the season.

What I want to see:

The forward pass and lots of Tawee Walker carries. Tyler Van Dyke has 2 weeks to work out the kinks of being on a new team. Let’s throw …

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Wisco Wednesday: Full Regular Season Predictions

How many games can Wisconsin win in 2024? Where will the 3 rivalry trophies end up? And Wisco plays how many top 10 teams at home?

Week 1 – Western Michigan at Wisconsin 

Friday Aug 30th – 8:00 PM

Line: Wisconsin -24.5

Prediction: WinWisco 38, Western Michigan 14

This week 1 tune-up game goes very similarly to last year’s. A slow start offensively, but then they take off once Bucky commits to the run. 

Week 2 – South Dakota at Wisconsin 

Saturday Sept 7th – 2:30 PM

Line: TBD

Prediction: Win – Wisco 31, South Dakota 10

South Dakota is the 5th ranked FCS team in the country. That would make them just a tiny bit better than Western Michigan. This game will never feel close.

Week 3 – 5 Alabama at Wisconsin 

Saturday Sept 14th – 11:00 AM

Line: Alabama -9.5

Prediction: Loss – Alabama 28, Wisco 20

Wisconsin covers the 9.5, but Alabama is just too good. Unless Tyler Van Dyke is the next Russ, I don’t see Wisconsin pulling the upset here. Side note – It’s a tragedy that this game is at 11:00 AM. 

Week 4 – OFF

Week 5 –

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Wisco Wednesday: Offense Preview

What do you know about Wisconsin’s Offense? Will Pauling is WR1. The OL has a rock-solid top 6. And there is a new Quarterback in Mad Town… again. 

Coaching Changes

Phil Longo is still the OC, but there were 2 major changes to his support staff.  

O-Line

Jack Bicknell Jr. followed Phil Longo to Madison from North Carolina. He was the O-Line coach in 2023 but has been reassigned for the 2024 season. This can be seen as a demotion as far as I’m concerned. 

This means Wisconsin will have its 4th different O-Line coach in 4 seasons. Not exactly the stability of years past. 4th time’s the charm? AJ Blazek hopes so. He was an All-B1G Center playing for Iowa in 2000 and has been a career OL coach ever since. His 2 most recent stops have been with North Dakota State in 2019 and 2020, and Vanderbilt since 2021. Fickell likes his extensive coaching experience, recruiting familiarity in the B1G footprint, and his success at NDSU.

Side noteLeyton Nelson is a Vanderbilt LT transfer following Blazek to Wisconsin. He is injured for now but might be part of Wisconsin’s future plans at the position. 

Wide

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The Ultimate B1G Roadtrip

How to see every B1G stadium in 1 season. It’s more doable than you think. You’ll even get to see some pretty incredible games in the process.

Week 1

Thursday – North Carolina at Minnesota

Taking full advantage of Thursday and Friday games will be key in this exercise. We have 18 stadiums to get to, but only 14 weeks to do it. 

Saturday – UConn at Maryland

With most of the Week 1 games being forgettable, we can knock out Maryland early. Plus, this is a nice northeast vs northeast non-con matchup.

Week 2

Friday – Duke at Northwestern

It may be at a practice field, but Northwestern still counts. Getting this done on a Friday gives us a lot of options for a fantastic week 2 Saturday in the Big Ten.

Saturday – Iowa State at Iowa

Iowa State vs Iowa supposedly has some of the most legendary tailgating in college football, so arrive early in Iowa City. I passed on Texas at Michigan and Colorado at Nebraska. There will be plenty of Michigan later on this list and we also manage to see Nebrasak twice late in the year. 

Week 3

Saturday – Alabama at Wisconsin

Wisconsin …

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Wisco Wednesday: Bucky’s Out of Town

Training Camp is in full swing, but not in Madison. If YOU want to see the Badgers practice, where should you be, and when?

Minimizing Distractions

Luke Fickell made a change to training camp last offseason to “minimize distractions.” He took the team to UW-Platteville for the first week of training camp. The players stayed in the dorms, were served food by the school, and used the University’s facilities for practice and conditioning. 

Fickell was a fan of this “road trip” training camp during his time at Cincinnati. It builds team chemistry and accelerates integrating transfers into the locker room. But most importantly, it minimizes distractions. At an hour and 15 minutes from Madison, the players are sufficiently far enough away from the Madison party scene, their friends, and their girlfriends, that the only thing they can focus on is football.

Last year was considered such a success, the Badgers are doubling down in 2024. Instead of 1 week in Platteville, it’s 15 days this year. They left town on July 29 and won’t be back until August 12. The Badgers have committed to returning to Platteville for training camp for the next 3 seasons, so don’t expect …

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