There are 134 FBS teams. But let’s be honest, not all of them are capable of winning a national title. Who are the select few that could do it in 2024?

The Blue Chip Ratio

There is a metric used to determine who is capable of winning the national championship that has never been wrong since its inception in 2011, and would presumably be accurate going back to the inception of that national championship game.

This metric is the Blue Chip Ratio.
It’s quite simple. Over the last 4 recruiting cycles, a team must have over 50% of high school recruits be “blue chip” players. A blue chip player is a 4 or 5 star recruit. The transfer portal doesn’t matter. If the player plays doesn’t matter. If you have a bunch of 3 stars that are projected 1st round NFL draft picks, that doesn’t matter. Just acquire as much high school talent as possible.

As of right now, there are 407 blue chip players in the 2025 high school class. Teams generally add 20-30 high school recruits per year. When you consider that there are 68 Power 4 schools, that’s not a lot of talent to go around. 

The blue chip ratio doesn’t tell you who can make the playoff or who is more likely to win an individual game. It is only used to identify the pool of teams that are capable of winning the natty. 

In 2023, Michigan was at 54%. That was enough.

Teams Above The Line

These are the teams above the required 50% blue chip player line with their blue chip percentage listed. 

Ohio State – 90%
Alabama – 88%
Georgia – 80%
Texas A&M – 79%
Oregon – 76%
Oklahoma – 73%
Texas 72%
LSU – 70%
Notre Dame – 67%
Clemson – 64%
Florida – 63%
Miami – 61%
Penn State – 61%
USC – 59%
Michigan – 56%
Auburn – 53%

The Breakdown by conference:

8 SEC teams
5 Big Ten teams
2 ACC teams
And Notre Dame

At first glance, that’s a lot of SEC teams. 

History says that one of these 16 teams will win the National Championship. It’s a long list, but notable teams are missing. Washington didn’t qualify, and, despite making the national title game in 2023, they were below 50% then too. Florida State and Utah aren’t here, and they are both favorites to win their conferences. That would guarantee them a spot in the playoff, but history says they don’t have the players to finish the job. 

Eventually, the Blue Chip rule has to be broken, right? It has never happened yet, so it’s awfully hard to predict it happening any time soon.

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This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene