July 8, 2024

There are 134 FBS teams. But let’s be honest, not all of them are capable of winning a national title. Who are the select few that could do it in 2024?

The Blue Chip Ratio

There is a metric used to determine who is capable of winning the national championship that has never been wrong since its inception in 2011, and would presumably be accurate going back to the inception of that national championship game.

This metric is the Blue Chip Ratio.
It’s quite simple. Over the last 4 recruiting cycles, a team must have over 50% of high school recruits be “blue chip” players. A blue chip player is a 4 or 5 star recruit. The transfer portal doesn’t matter. If the player plays doesn’t matter. If you have a bunch of 3 stars that are projected 1st round NFL draft picks, that doesn’t matter. Just acquire as much high school talent as possible.

As of right now, there are 407 blue chip players in the 2025 high school class. Teams generally add 20-30 high school recruits per year. When you consider that there are 68 Power 4 schools, that’s not a lot of talent to go around. …